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Pnoldguy's avatar

Excellent summary. Arnell meet Brackens post today. Bracken, meet Arnell.

Two distinct views of war and how they are won.

This is why I subscribe to Substack.

William Willis's avatar

So CHRIS..your astute post or should I say mini history book 😉 makes great sense and if I'm reading it right then President Trump and our War Dept may be kidding themselves that this war is basically over because none of the three structural elements you mentioned have been substantially weakened enough to cause defeat and a win.

Saying, the main tier of leaders have been eliminated at the top and some middle levels too but they were smart to plan for that happening thus leadership continuation was delegated for war-making and decision making-abilities to others so to continue fighting especially in districts and regions outside the capitol where a lot of the war machinery is still hidden & stored for later use.

Then, the Army is still huge, scattered for safety purposes, still getting paid so are loyal and awaiting any foreign ground troops that dare to confront them.

Also, the funds to keep this conflict going much longer are still readily available especially with the sale of oil and tanker shipping fees.

Also, the Iranian citizens are doing what other people have done during wars..chill out, hide, escape, be wary of the local police & military but not to count on being saved by the opposing enemy until they see the whites of their eyes and even then half of the citizens may stand up for the current regime & military since they know the well-meaning invaders will eventually leave.

Lastly, Americans & their politicians over the past several wars have basically dictated when the war effort will essentially be over and withdrawal is in their personal & political interest versus those of the military..

so with that said I suspect that 4-6 more weeks of fighting in Iran to get the job done versus present or even higher gas & food costs here will be the catalyst for winding it down. Cheers~

Christopher Arnell's avatar

You are 100% correct!

Still delusional at the top (but I still love Trump).

In the past, war was over when we won.

We don't win anymore.

We settle. :-(

A Curious Mind's avatar

Jan. 6, 2026 Iranian Rial to U.S. Dollar 42,050 to 1.0

April 3, 2026 Iranian Rial to U.S. Dollar 1,319,175 to 1.0

Conversion Rate 1 Iranian Rial = 0.000000758 U.S. Dollars (as of April 3, 2026)

Most reporting systems cannot show that many zeros so they just report it as 0.00.

As a result of the collapse of the Iranian currency (the Rial) the price of a loaf of bread (if you can find one) in Iran, in real terms, has gone from the equivalent of US$0.50 (cents) to US$15.00 (dollars), in the last several months. It comes as no surprise then that the civilian population of Iran is demonstrating, and dying, in the streets. Yet the regime persists. Why?

Ideological fervor backed up by hard currency reserves and crypto.

I have read that Iran relies on oil sales for 90% of its foreign exchange earnings, which are vital to its economy especially now that the Iranian currency is worthless. (Calls to mind pictures of Germans at the end of WWII pushing wheelbarrows full of German Marks through the streets of Berlin to buy groceries). And that the regime and Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) control 90 of that.

The regime has maintained loyalty among its enforcers (IRGC, Basij) through payment in hard currency and/or providiing favorable exchange rates. Yet billions of hard currency is flowing out of Iran. This suggests the elites are getting their money out of the country while they can.

In the final analysis, Iran is a financial war.

Clearly, degrading Iran's military capability, and severely restricting its sale of oil, will have a dramatic impact on the regime's ability to wage war, but will it be enough to bring about victory?

What would you do if the price of bread had increased 31 fold in a matter of months?

Eric Blemaster's avatar

Iran is a middle ground situation compared to destroying a centralized government in Japan/Germany as opposed to fighting a guerilla war in Afghanistan/Vietnam. Compared to Afghanistan, Iran is a far more civilized country with a centralized government. It was a complete waste of time to intervene in Afghanistan. We never had a chance of winning the hearts and minds of the indigenous population.

Iran may be different. The indigenous population may rise up to establish a more peaceful, western style government if we persist and give them the opportunity. We must first complete a total victory over the current regime. Do we have the will to do this?? Time will tell.

Christopher Arnell's avatar

Very true. I worked for an Iranian family, and they are different. Very conservative but not Allah Akbar, crazy conservative. lol

You’re right, though. Time will tell.

Frenchy's avatar

Great essay on war post WWII. Unfortunately, we are facing a repeat in Iran of exactly what you have described. Since we have facilitated the division of our own country, through uncontrolled mass migration, we no longer have a united cohesive vision of America. We have elected officials that are unfaithful to America. They lied while faking the Oath of Office. That being said, we no longer have the political will in this country to bring about the conclusive end of war as you have described.

The current administration is just about at the end of the duration our current Americans are willing to endure. The MSM, Hollywood, and the Deep State infrastructure are working overtime to undermine American resolve to "end" the war as you have described. Like any normal human, I am horrified by the destruction of war. I am more disgusted and horrified by the failure of many Americans to understand what you have just written about.

I fear we are about to continue down the path you accurately described. We have the military capacity to facilitate a decisive end of the conflict; but we no longer have the political will. I don't like having a negative outlook on America; but we have allowed the rot from within. I truly believe it began in the 1960's and it has continually gotten worse as "post-modernists" have taken over universities and government institutions. I think the Iran war may be a point of no return for our society.

William Willis's avatar

So CHRIS..your astute post or should I say mini history book 😉 makes great sense and if I'm reading it right then President Trump and our War Dept may be kidding themselves that this war is basically over because none of the three structural elements you mentioned have been substantially weakened enough to cause defeat and a win.

Saying, the main tier of leaders have been eliminated at the top and some middle levels too but they were smart to plan for that happening thus leadership continuation was delegated for war-making and decision making-abilities to others so to continue fighting especially in districts and regions outside the capitol where a lot of the war machinery is still hidden & stored for later use.

Then, the Army is still huge, scattered for safety purposes, still getting paid so are loyal and awaiting any foreign ground troops that dare to confront them.

Also, the funds to keep this conflict going much longer are still readily available especially with the sale of oil and tanker shipping fees.

Also, the Iranian citizens are doing what other people have done during wars..chill out, hide, escape, be wary of the local police & military but not to count on being saved by the opposing enemy until they see the whites of their eyes and even then half of the citizens may stand up for the current regime & military since they know the well-meaning invaders will eventually leave.

Lastly, Americans & their politicians over the past several wars have basically dictated when the war effort will essentially be over and withdrawal is in their personal & political interest versus those of the military..

so with that said I suspect that 4-6 more weeks of fighting in Iran to get the job done versus present or even higher gas & food costs here will be the catalyst for winding it down. Cheers~

William Willis's avatar

So CHRIS..your astute post or should I say mini history book 😉 makes great sense and if I'm reading it right then President Trump and our War Dept may be kidding themselves that this war is basically over because none of the three structural elements you mentioned have been substantially weakened enough to cause defeat and a win.

Saying, the main tier of leaders have been eliminated at the top and some middle levels too but they were smart to plan for that happening thus leadership continuation was delegated for war-making and decision making-abilities to others so to continue fighting especially in districts and regions outside the capitol where a lot of the war machinery is still hidden & stored for later use.

Then, the Army is still huge, scattered for safety purposes, still getting paid so are loyal and awaiting any foreign ground troops that dare to confront them.

Also, the funds to keep this conflict going much longer are still readily available especially with the sale of oil and tanker shipping fees.

Also, the Iranian citizens are doing what other people have done during wars..chill out, hide, escape, be wary of the local police & military but not to count on being saved by the opposing enemy until they see the whites of their eyes and even then half of the citizens may stand up for the current regime & military since they know the well-meaning invaders will eventually leave.

Lastly, Americans & their politicians over the past several wars have basically dictated when the war effort will essentially be over and withdrawal is in their personal & political interest versus those of the military..

so with that said I suspect that 4-6 more weeks of fighting in Iran to get the job done versus present or even higher gas & food costs here will be the catalyst for winding it down. Cheers~

William Willis's avatar

So CHRIS..your astute post or should I say mini history book 😉 makes great sense and if I'm reading it right then President Trump and our War Dept may be kidding themselves that this war is basically over because none of the three structural elements you mentioned have been substantially weakened enough to cause defeat and a win.

Saying, the main tier of leaders have been eliminated at the top and some middle levels too but they were smart to plan for that happening thus leadership continuation was delegated for war-making and decision making-abilities to others so to continue fighting especially in districts and regions outside the capitol where a lot of the war machinery is still hidden & stored for later use.

Then, the Army is still huge, scattered for safety purposes, still getting paid so are loyal and awaiting any foreign ground troops that dare to confront them.

Also, the funds to keep this conflict going much longer are still readily available especially with the sale of oil and tanker shipping fees.

Also, the Iranian citizens are doing what other people have done during wars..chill out, hide, escape, be wary of the local police & military but not to count on being saved by the opposing enemy until they see the whites of their eyes and even then half of the citizens may stand up for the current regime & military since they know the well-meaning invaders will eventually leave.

Lastly, Americans & their politicians over the past several wars have basically dictated when the war effort will essentially be over and withdrawal is in their personal & political interest versus those of the military..

so with that said I suspect that 4-6 more weeks of fighting in Iran to get the job done versus present or even higher gas & food costs here will be the catalyst for winding it down. Cheers~

William Willis's avatar

So CHRIS..your astute post or should I say mini history book 😉 makes great sense and if I'm reading it right then President Trump and our War Dept may be kidding themselves that this war is basically over because none of the three structural elements you mentioned have been substantially weakened enough to cause defeat and a win.

Saying, the main tier of leaders have been eliminated at the top and some middle levels too but they were smart to plan for that happening thus leadership continuation was delegated for war-making and decision making-abilities to others so to continue fighting especially in districts and regions outside the capitol where a lot of the war machinery is still hidden & stored for later use.

Then, the Army is still huge, scattered for safety purposes, still getting paid so are loyal and awaiting any foreign ground troops that dare to confront them.

Also, the funds to keep this conflict going much longer are still readily available especially with the sale of oil and tanker shipping fees.

Also, the Iranian citizens are doing what other people have done during wars..chill out, hide, escape, be wary of the local police & military but not to count on being saved by the opposing enemy until they see the whites of their eyes and even then half of the citizens may stand up for the current regime & military since they know the well-meaning invaders will eventually leave.

Lastly, Americans & their politicians over the past several wars have basically dictated when the war effort will essentially be over and withdrawal is in their personal & political interest versus those of the military..

so with that said I suspect that 4-6 more weeks of fighting in Iran to get the job done versus present or even higher gas & food costs here will be the catalyst for winding it down. Cheers~

William Willis's avatar

So CHRIS..your astute post or should I say mini history book 😉 makes great sense and if I'm reading it right then President Trump and our War Dept may be kidding themselves that this war is basically over because none of the three structural elements you mentioned have been substantially weakened enough to cause defeat and a win.

Saying, the main tier of leaders have been eliminated at the top and some middle levels too but they were smart to plan for that happening thus leadership continuation was delegated for war-making and decision making-abilities to others so to continue fighting especially in districts and regions outside the capitol where a lot of the war machinery is still hidden & stored for later use.

Then, the Army is still huge, scattered for safety purposes, still getting paid so are loyal and awaiting any foreign ground troops that dare to confront them.

Also, the funds to keep this conflict going much longer are still readily available especially with the sale of oil and tanker shipping fees.

Also, the Iranian citizens are doing what other people have done during wars..chill out, hide, escape, be wary of the local police & military but not to count on being saved by the opposing enemy until they see the whites of their eyes and even then half of the citizens may stand up for the current regime & military since they know the well-meaning invaders will eventually leave.

Lastly, Americans & their politicians over the past several wars have basically dictated when the war effort will essentially be over and withdrawal is in their personal & political interest versus those of the military..

so with that said I suspect that 4-6 more weeks of fighting in Iran to get the job done versus present or even higher gas & food costs here will be the catalyst for winding it down. Cheers~

William Willis's avatar

So CHRIS..your astute post or should I say mini history book 😉 makes great sense and if I'm reading it right then President Trump and our War Dept may be kidding themselves that this war is basically over because none of the three structural elements you mentioned have been substantially weakened enough to cause defeat and a win.

Saying, the main tier of leaders have been eliminated at the top and some middle levels too but they were smart to plan for that happening thus leadership continuation was delegated for war-making and decision making-abilities to others so to continue fighting especially in districts and regions outside the capitol where a lot of the war machinery is still hidden & stored for later use.

Then, the Army is still huge, scattered for safety purposes, still getting paid so are loyal and awaiting any foreign ground troops that dare to confront them.

Also, the funds to keep this conflict going much longer are still readily available especially with the sale of oil and tanker shipping fees.

Also, the Iranian citizens are doing what other people have done during wars..chill out, hide, escape, be wary of the local police & military but not to count on being saved by the opposing enemy until they see the whites of their eyes and even then half of the citizens may stand up for the current regime & military since they know the well-meaning invaders will eventually leave.

Lastly, Americans & their politicians over the past several wars have basically dictated when the war effort will essentially be over and withdrawal is in their personal & political interest versus those of the military..

so with that said I suspect that 4-6 more weeks of fighting in Iran to get the job done versus present or even higher gas & food costs here will be the catalyst for winding it down. Cheers~

William Willis's avatar

So CHRIS..your astute post or should I say mini history book 😉 makes great sense and if I'm reading it right then President Trump and our War Dept may be kidding themselves that this war is basically over because none of the three structural elements you mentioned have been substantially weakened enough to cause defeat and a win.

Saying, the main tier of leaders have been eliminated at the top and some middle levels too but they were smart to plan for that happening thus leadership continuation was delegated for war-making and decision making-abilities to others so to continue fighting especially in districts and regions outside the capitol where a lot of the war machinery is still hidden & stored for later use.

Then, the Army is still huge, scattered for safety purposes, still getting paid so are loyal and awaiting any foreign ground troops that dare to confront them.

Also, the funds to keep this conflict going much longer are still readily available especially with the sale of oil and tanker shipping fees.

Also, the Iranian citizens are doing what other people have done during wars..chill out, hide, escape, be wary of the local police & military but not to count on being saved by the opposing enemy until they see the whites of their eyes and even then half of the citizens may stand up for the current regime & military since they know the well-meaning invaders will eventually leave.

Lastly, Americans & their politicians over the past several wars have basically dictated when the war effort will essentially be over and withdrawal is in their personal & political interest versus those of the military..

so with that said I suspect that 4-6 more weeks of fighting in Iran to get the job done versus present or even higher gas & food costs here will be the catalyst for winding it down. Cheers~

William Willis's avatar

So CHRIS..your astute post or should I say mini history book 😉 makes great sense and if I'm reading it right then President Trump and our War Dept may be kidding themselves that this war is basically over because none of the three structural elements you mentioned have been substantially weakened enough to cause defeat and a win.

Saying, the main tier of leaders have been eliminated at the top and some middle levels too but they were smart to plan for that happening thus leadership continuation was delegated for war-making and decision making-abilities to others so to continue fighting especially in districts and regions outside the capitol where a lot of the war machinery is still hidden & stored for later use.

Then, the Army is still huge, scattered for safety purposes, still getting paid so are loyal and awaiting any foreign ground troops that dare to confront them.

Also, the funds to keep this conflict going much longer are still readily available especially with the sale of oil and tanker shipping fees.

Also, the Iranian citizens are doing what other people have done during wars..chill out, hide, escape, be wary of the local police & military but not to count on being saved by the opposing enemy until they see the whites of their eyes and even then half of the citizens may stand up for the current regime & military since they know the well-meaning invaders will eventually leave.

Lastly, Americans & their politicians over the past several wars have basically dictated when the war effort will essentially be over and withdrawal is in their personal & political interest versus those of the military..

so with that said I suspect that 4-6 more weeks of fighting in Iran to get the job done versus present or even higher gas & food costs here will be the catalyst for winding it down. Cheers~

William Willis's avatar

So CHRIS..your astute post or should I say mini history book 😉 makes great sense and if I'm reading it right then President Trump and our War Dept may be kidding themselves that this war is basically over because none of the three structural elements you mentioned have been substantially weakened enough to cause defeat and a win.

Saying, the main tier of leaders have been eliminated at the top and some middle levels too but they were smart to plan for that happening thus leadership continuation was delegated for war-making and decision making-abilities to others so to continue fighting especially in districts and regions outside the capitol where a lot of the war machinery is still hidden & stored for later use.

Then, the Army is still huge, scattered for safety purposes, still getting paid so are loyal and awaiting any foreign ground troops that dare to confront them.

Also, the funds to keep this conflict going much longer are still readily available especially with the sale of oil and tanker shipping fees.

Also, the Iranian citizens are doing what other people have done during wars..chill out, hide, escape, be wary of the local police & military but not to count on being saved by the opposing enemy until they see the whites of their eyes and even then half of the citizens may stand up for the current regime & military since they know the well-meaning invaders will eventually leave.

Lastly, Americans & their politicians over the past several wars have basically dictated when the war effort will essentially be over and withdrawal is in their personal & political interest versus those of the military..

so with that said I suspect that 4-6 more weeks of fighting in Iran to get the job done versus present or even higher gas & food costs here will be the catalyst for winding it down. Cheers~

William Willis's avatar

So CHRIS..your astute post or should I say mini history book 😉 makes great sense and if I'm reading it right then President Trump and our War Dept may be kidding themselves that this war is basically over because none of the three structural elements you mentioned have been substantially weakened enough to cause defeat and a win.

Saying, the main tier of leaders have been eliminated at the top and some middle levels too but they were smart to plan for that happening thus leadership continuation was delegated for war-making and decision making-abilities to others so to continue fighting especially in districts and regions outside the capitol where a lot of the war machinery is still hidden & stored for later use.

Then, the Army is still huge, scattered for safety purposes, still getting paid so are loyal and awaiting any foreign ground troops that dare to confront them.

Also, the funds to keep this conflict going much longer are still readily available especially with the sale of oil and tanker shipping fees.

Also, the Iranian citizens are doing what other people have done during wars..chill out, hide, escape, be wary of the local police & military but not to count on being saved by the opposing enemy until they see the whites of their eyes and even then half of the citizens may stand up for the current regime & military since they know the well-meaning invaders will eventually leave.

Lastly, Americans & their politicians over the past several wars have basically dictated when the war effort will essentially be over and withdrawal is in their personal & political interest versus those of the military..

so with that said I suspect that 4-6 more weeks of fighting in Iran to get the job done versus present or even higher gas & food costs here will be the catalyst for winding it down. Cheers~